”Internal Security Review" (Przegląd Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego) Submission Panel

Indicator analysis as a way for the Second Department of Polish General Staff to counter the risk of chemical warfare being unleashed by Germany in the 1920s
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Keywords

Second Department of Polish General Staff
chemical weapons
Poland
Germany
intelligence
indicator analysis

Abstract

After regaining its independence in 1918, Poland faced a number
of security challenges. The most important of these was survival
in the face of revisionist steps taken by aggressive neighbours,
including Germany and the USSR. One important aspect of this
threat was to determine the risk of the Weimar Republic unleashing
chemical warfare against the Second Republic. In order to cope with
this intelligence task, the Second Department of Polish General Staff
developed a number of instructions whose structure and internal
logic is comparable to the indicator analysis technique developed
only 60 years later by the American Intelligence Community.
On the basis of material preserved in the State Archive in Gdańsk
and contemporary textbooks on information analysis techniques,
it is shown how officers of Polish military intelligence, decades
before the method of indicator analysis was formalised, developed
their own way, which is essentially identical to it. This demonstrates
the remarkable innovation and organisational capacity of the newly
forming intelligence service of the reborn state.

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References

Grunt P., Structured Analytic Techniques: Taxonomy and Technique Selection for Information and Analysis Practitioners, „Journal of Management and Financial Sciences” 2017, t. 10, nr 30, s. 115–136.

Heuer R.J., Pherson R.H., Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, Washington 2011.

Kozłowski J., Teoria i praktyka działań analityczno-informacyjnych, Warszawa 2016.

Pherson R.H., The Five Habits of the Master Thinker, „Journal of Strategic Security” 2013, t. 6, nr 3, s. 54–60.

U.S. Government, A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis, 2009.

Literatura rosyjska

Черкасов А.А., Рябцев А.А., Меньковский В.И., «Атака мертвецов» (Осовец, 1915 г.): миф или реальность, „Былые годы” 2011, nr 4 (22), s. 5–11.

Źródła archiwalne

Archiwum Państwowe w Gdańsku, Organizacja wywiadu i instrukcja, sygn. nr 1107.

Instytut Pamięci Narodowej, Śladami powstania wielkopolskiego. Bitwa pod wiatrakami i inne potyczki, https://pw.ipn.gov.pl/pwi/historia/przebieg-walk-powstancz/sladami-powstania-wielk/8464,BITWA-POD-WIATRAKAMI-I-INNE-POTYCZKI.html [dostęp: 5 VI 2023].

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