Keywords
Intelligence cycle
intelligence analysis
source reliability
information reliability
Abstract
The phases of preparation, analysis, integration, initial
interpretation of data and intelligence are relatively widely described
in the literature. Only the field of assessing the certainty of sources
and the reliability of data and intelligence has not kept pace with
the development of other elements in the domain of information
operations. In view of the increasing intensity of activities carried
out by potential adversaries, the methods, techniques and tools
currently in use should be critically evaluated and their limitations
identified, and attempts should be made to develop and implement
new processes and procedures. Above all, the capacity to prepare
and communicate increasingly accurate assessments of the certainty
of sources and the reliability of data and information must be
enhanced. Therefore, it is necessary to: quantify the accuracy
of the information, prepare new procedures and software, study
the degree of information redundancy, its completeness and level
of diagnosticity. Acquisition and analytical apparatus staff must be
aware of existing limitations and search for ways to solve problems.
Such a search should not focus on one-size-fits-all methods, but on
a pragmatic approach to each element.
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