Terrorism – studies, analyses, prevention

Prognozowanie zagrożeń terrorystycznych jako element systemu antyterrorystycznego

Tomasz Aleksandrowicz — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0200

The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting terrorist threats and its role in the state's anti-terrorist system. The aim of the article is to present the methodology of forecasting terrorist threats, as well as the basic methods, techniques and tools applicable in this process. The main thesis of the article is the statement that a properly prepared forecast allows to determine with a high degree of probability the possibility of a terrorist threat, however, in such a case we are always dealing with the assessment of such a possibility, and not with cognitive certainty. In the research, the result of which is the presented article, system analysis was used as the basic research method.

Key words: forecasting - terrorist threats - anti-terrorist system

Recenzja książki Katarzyny Maniszewskiej "Towards a New Definition of Terrorism: Challenges and Perspectives in a Shifting Paradigm"

Paulina Piasecka — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0200

Review of Katarzyna Maniszewska's book "Towards a New Definition of Terrorism: Challenges and Perspectives in a Shifting Paradigm" (ed. Springer, 2024)

Managing the president's security against terrorist threats

marcin lipka — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0200

In a VUCA world, terrorist actions leading to political assassination are formed by two enormously complex sets of technologically evolving variables: "motivation" and "opportunity." The security services responsible for the president's security use two basic protection strategies based on limiting availability and hiding the location. Effective (efficient, economic and beneficial) application of these strategies requires the ability to adapt to the changing conditions of the security environment. In protective activities, the decision-making process determined by access to information is of key importance.

Jewish/Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The history and present of violence that has no end.

Krzysztof Izak — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0200

The Jewish-Palestinian conflict has been going on for over 100 years. Its source was British colonial policy and the dynamically increasing Jewish settlement in Palestine, which was the implementation of the Zionist project of establishing a Jewish national headquarters. This was accompanied by the deteriorating living conditions of the Palestinians and the emerging nationalism among them, and with it the need to resist against the Jews and the British. As a result of subsequent acts of violence and negotiations, the territory of the Palestinian Arabs decreased. The Palestine War of 1947-1948 forced the flight of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. The establishment of Israel in 1948 was a real defeat (al-nakba) for the Arab population of Palestine, still commemorated today as the most tragic period in history. In the 1950s and 1960s, Palestinian secular independence organizations began to emerge: first Al-Fatah and later the PLO. Israel's occupation of the territory of Palestine as a result of the Six-Day War in 1967 resulted in the development of subsequent armed Palestinian groups for which terrorism became the basic method of fighting. Terrorist activities were also internationalized. The defeat of Al-Fatah in Lebanon in 1982 forced the organization's leadership to leave the Middle East and establish headquarters near Tunis. Al-Fatah thus lost control over events in Palestine. This coincided with the Islamization of the independence process, which was accompanied by the religious radicalization of Jewish youth, mainly coming from settlement communities. The process of colonization of the West Bank continued. It was in these conditions that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad developed and Hamas was founded. Israel initially supported Hamas, seeing it as an opportunity to lure young people away from Al-Fatah. However, the first intifada, which Islamists began to take over, was directed against Israel. Muslim radicals were gaining more and more support and managed to take over most of the aid coming from the Persian Gulf countries. The PLO decided that it would rebuild its position in society through peace talks with Israel, which ended in September 1993 with the signing of the Oslo Accords. They were intended to create the foundation for the construction of the Palestinian Authority. Hamas torpedoed the peace talks from the beginning and distanced itself from the Agreements. The February 1994 massacre of Palestinians in Hebron by a Jewish fanatic led to retaliatory terrorist attacks by Hamas. In turn, the result of the opposition of ultra-religious-nationalist Jewish circles to the agreements with the Palestinians was the murder of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995 by a Jewish radical. In July 2000, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks at Camp David collapsed. The Palestinian society, discouraged by the lack of results of the peace process and embittered by difficult living conditions, incited another uprising, called the Al-Aqsa intifada. Secular and religious Palestinian groups took part in it. Israel's response was to eliminate Hamas leader Ahmed Yassin in March 2004 and his successor, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, the following month. Arafat's death in November 2004 was considered the end of the second intifada. He was replaced by Mahmoud Abbas, who is still president of the Palestinian Authority. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Authority's parliamentary elections and formed a government. The election results were unacceptable to Al-Fatah and the West, and as a result, Al-Fatah removed Hamas from power in the West Bank, while in the Gaza Strip, Hamas defeated Al-Fatah. These events led to the permanent division of Palestinian territory and the blockade of the Gaza Strip. Since then, Hamas and PID have repeatedly fired rockets at Israel, to which the Israeli armed forces responded with subsequent military operations. With them came the radicalization of Israeli society, which, traumatized by Palestinian terrorism, was fed up with subsequent peace talks and the two-state solution. They actually ended with the removal of the Israeli left from power. Israelis entrusted successive governments to Benjamin Netanyahu (prime minister in 2009-2021 and again from 2022), considering the charismatic Likud leader as the best guarantor of state security. In turn, the Palestinian Authority authorities, when foreign mediators called for peace talks, demanded too much for Israel to join them. At the same time, Israeli settlers were dynamically colonizing the Occupied Territories, separated by a high wall from the areas inhabited by Palestinians. Their problem has ceased to be raised even by the Israeli opposition protesting in 2023 against the Netanyahu government's attack on the independence of the judiciary. On October 7, Hamas attacked Israel from land and air, killing over 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking approximately 240 hostages. It was the largest and most spectacular Palestinian operation, as a result of which Israel suffered the greatest losses, apart from, of course, regular military operations in subsequent wars with Arab countries. The Jewish state's response is the ongoing operation in the Gaza Strip aimed at the complete destruction of Hamas. Over 35,000 people have already died in this war. Palestinians and the complete destruction of the infrastructure of the Gaza Strip.

Recenzja książki dr J. Cymerskiego pt. Współczesna formacja ochronna wobec zagrożeń terrorystycznych

Agnieszka Dębska — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0200

Recenzja

Zabezpieczenie placówek oświatowych przed aktywnym zabójcą na przykładzie Stanów Zjednoczonych Ameryki. Dobre praktyki i rekomendacje

Katarzyna Amrozy — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0200

Schools and universities (as well as other places accessible to people) may be the target of various perpetrators, and this threat seems to be higher now than it was a few years ago. The aim of the article is to identify the main elements and proposals for securing educational institutions against attacks by active killers, which are recommended in the United States, and then, on this basis, to indicate potential solutions that could be introduced in Polish institutions. They concern both physical security and broadly understood prevention and monitoring of threats.

Polish and English

Katarzyna Maniszewska — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0200

Book review: Bruce Hoffman, Jacob Ware, God, Guns, and Sedition

SHAPING PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF SURVEILLANCE - PROPOSED SOLUTIONS

Bartosz Bochyński — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0200

The article was devoted to proposals for measures aimed at shaping the desired perception of surveillance by Polish citizens . It addresses the issues of terminology, the impact of trust in secret services and institutions supervising them on the public approach to the issue of surveillance, the appropriate mindset and public awareness. Proposed solutions include conducting social campaigns showing the benefits of surveillance, raising public awareness on the necessity of using specific measures in providing security, and developing anti-terrorism education in Poland. The purpose of these activities is to reduce suspicion and fear of secret services activities and increase public acceptance of surveillance. In the modern world, cooperation with society is a pillar of the effectiveness of state institutions, especially in such a sensitive area as security.